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 The time is 1961: the place MIT. Edward Lorenz,
a mathematician turned meteorologist, has developed a computer
program that models weather patterns. Given the era, the computer was
very rudimentary by today's standards and could not possibly track
all the variables that would comprise realistic pictures of actual
weather. Rather, Lorenz's model tracked changing wind and temperature
patterns over time. By changing the input variables, Lorenz was
able to model many different patterns. Each line of output from the
model represented patterns for one "simulated day."
During the winter of
1961, Lorenz wanted to review one sequence of weather patterns in
greater detail. Instead of restarting the program at the beginning
Lorenz resumed the modeling sequence part way through by typing
intermediate values previously printed out by the model. The input
numbers contained only three decimal points but the model worked on
numbers with six decimal places. Lorenz believed that the differences
- one part in a thousand - would be inconsequential, but he was
wrong.
Immediately, the
computer veered off on a new sequence of outputs and as the
"simulated days" went on, the results diverged even
more. To Lorenz's credit, he realized that this was not a
failed vacuum tube in his computer nor a programming error - he was
witnessing a fundamental principal underlying non-linear dynamic
systems[1] - what came to be
called CHAOS. Most importantly, the results from his computer never
intersected old values or repeated themselves; that is, non-linear
dynamic systems will not be self-corrective.
This characteristic
of Chaos came to be called the "Butterfly Effect":
If a Butterfly Flaps Its Wings in Beijing, Will That Impact Weather
in New York?
Slight changes in initial values or small nonlinearities in
extraneous values will impact results.
Another key
characteristic of non-linear dynamic systems is the principle of
"FeedBack" - what happened yesterday impacts current
results. In Chaotic systems - "what comes out, goes back
in, is transformed and comes back out." The chaotic
process is iterative in that the past is influenced by its past, etc.
[1] By dynamic system
we mean a system of equations in which the output of one equation is
part of the input for another. A non-linear dynamic system is
comprised of non-linear simultaneous equations. Non-linearity
implies that the relationships between variables are not ones of
direct proportion.
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Tic Tac Toe
presented by Bill Bartlett, FCAS, MAAA
Arrange the numbers 1-9 in the squares below so that they add up to
15 in all directions. (horizontal, diagonal, and vertical). Use
each number only once.
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"Empower
one and all to vigorously seek WOW! in their work/projects."
Quote
by Thomas Peters, author of many books on business including In
Search of Excellence
For
more information about Bartlett Acturial Group, please visit our web
site at www.bartlettactuarialgroup.com.
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Bartlett Actuarial Group's Brian
Johnson Attains his ARM Designation
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 Brian Johnson passed the three qualifying
Associate in Risk Management Examinations to attain the ARM
designation in December 2010. Brian joined Bartlett in 2004 and
provides property and casualty actuarial services to a broad array of
clients nationwide.
Brian may be reached by email or at 843-377-0993.
Bartlett Actuarial
Group Provided Actuarial Services for the 100th Captive in Delaware.
Brian Johnson, ACAS, MAAA, attended the Delaware
celebration of its 100th captive in Wilmington on March 8. Our firm
was proud to provide actuarial services to the 100th captive. Legaré
Gresham, FCAS, MAAA serves on the board of the Delaware Captive
Insurance Association
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Bartlett
Actuarial Group Celebrates 10th Anniversary
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Bartlett
Actuarial Group will be celebrating this major milestone with a
number of events for our friends in the insurance industry throughout
2011. We will kick off our celebration in Charleston, SC
followed at later dates by events in Phoenix, AZ and Burlington, VT.
Our firm has grown from its roots in the captive insurance industry
to providing actuarial support to state regulatory agencies, traditional
insurance companies, life and health programs, expert witness
services and mergers and acquisitions. It has been an exciting decade
and we are looking forward to many exciting opportunities ahead.
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Insurance Funding Program Launched
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 Jeff
Altman, FSA, MAAA has played a key role in the design of an insurance
funding program whereby our firm and its partners can assist life
insurance companies raise funds to securitize redundant reserves
through the sale of bonds. Jeffrey may be reached via email or by phone at (917) 842-4945.
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CICA -Tucson, AZ
March13-15, 2011
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USA Risk - Charlotte,
NC
May 25-26
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MCIA - Whitefish, MT
July 12-14, 2011
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VCIA - Burlington, VT
August 9 - 11, 2011
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SCCIA - Charleston, SC
September 12- 14, 2011
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WRCIC (AZCIA, UCIA,
MCIA)
Salt Lake City, UT
September 26-29, 2011
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CIC-DC - Washington, DC
October 24-25, 2011
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NCIA - Las Vegas, NV
TBD
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KCIA - Louisville, KY
November 2-3, 2011
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Cayman - Grand Cayman
November 29 - December 1, 2011
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Bartlett Actuarial Group, Ltd. is an independent property and casualty
actuarial and risk management consulting firm offering services to a
nationwide clientele. We develop the mathematical models and analytical
tools that help our valued clients quantify, evaluate, and manage the
costs associated with their insurance and risk management.
South Carolina:
145 King Street, Ste 203 | Charleston, SC 29401
| 843-377-0993
Vermont:
289 College Street | Burlington, VT 05401 |
802-861-3072
Arizona:
4700 E. Thomas Road #106 | Phoenix, AZ 85018 |
602-956-3293
New York:
137 East 36th Street, 19F | New York, New York 10016
| 917-842-4945
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